Probability of Profit

POP is the modeled probability that a position closes at any profit at expiration. ACondor calculates POP conservatively as 1 minus the sum of the absolute values of the short deltas. For a 30-delta iron condor: POP = 1 - 0.30 - 0.30 = 0.40. This is stricter than tastytrade's wider POP that includes the credit cushion to breakeven. The POP floor in each engine is shipped disabled by default precisely because this conservative metric would reject most default condors if set too high.

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This site provides general information about ACondor, a software tool for automating options trading strategies. Nothing on this site is investment, tax, or financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past behavior of any strategy does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial professional before trading options. ACondor may earn a commission from affiliate links at no extra cost to you.